http://www.huffingtonpost.com/iris-lee/priorities-of-volcanic-pr_b_544161.html
Icelandic journalist and writer
Posted: April 20, 2010 09:20 AM
Priorities of Volcanic
Proportions
It was inevitable.
The airlines--caught between safety and profits-have chosen profits.
Although no one is disputing the potential hazards of flying a jet
carrying hundreds of people through a plume of volcanic ash, the
corporate overlords are pressuring the European regulators to ease the
restrictions placed on flights across northern Europe since the volcano
at Eyjafjallajökull began erupting last week.
There is certain logic to this. The air passengers, who have camped
out in airport hotels over the past few days, are understandingly
running out of patience (and, in many cases, funds). Losing $200+
million per day is unsustainable for any industry. With appropriate
precautions, most jets would probably not encounter a dense enough plume
to knock out their engines.
Personally, though, I'd rather not be on a jet that "probably" won't
crash; I would rather take an extra week or an alternative route to
remove that "probably" from the equation.
The authorities are certainly aware that if they allow flights, and
one goes down, an indefinite shutdown of all flights in the vicinity
would be required. The airlines must know that the lawsuits flowing from
such an incident would bankrupt the carrier that decided to give it a
go, and scare off many passengers until the Icelandic gods relent.
In many ways, the situation is similar to what we've just gone
through in the financial world. The regulators knew what was needed to
keep the system working smoothly, but the brokerage firms and investment
banks knew that there were big profits to be had if they took a few
risks outside the parameters set by the regulators. When push came to
shove, the politicians emasculated the laws and cut back on the
regulatory staffs, and the Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers of the
world were off to the races.
The "financial weapons of mass destructions" they created (as Warren
Buffet famously called them) eventually went off, and destroyed the
sense of security our governments had meticulously constructed since
1929. Glass-Steagall cut into profits, so it had to be eliminated. An
SEC focused on reducing risk was cramping their style, so it had to be
placed under Wall Street control.
In Iceland, the plutocrats assumed control of the banks, the media,
and the government, with spectacular results. As the recently-released
legislative "Black Report" outlines, the recklessness of the Icelandic
banks was matched only by the arrogance of the borrowers, the duplicity
of the politicians, and the ineptitude of the Icelandic Central Bank and
other regulators. The country is now in dire straits, and may not fully
regain its financial footing for a generation.
In contrast to the overmatched financial regulators, the scientists
and public health and safety authorities in Iceland have proven to be
thoroughly competent and professional. The evacuation plans were
prepared in advance and executed without a hitch. The situation was
closely monitored from the beginning, risk to the public was minimized
without favoritism, and the political institutions deferred to
scientific recommendations without dissent. The volcanoes have not
killed any Icelanders (though two died of exposure while trying to
approach the first volcano using an unauthorized route). The livestock
in the area appears to be doing well. Channels were dug in the highway
south of the glacier in a successful attempt to save the area's bridges.
When the winds shifted yesterday, warnings immediately went out, and
the schools in Vík were closed, and people were instructed to remain
indoors.
Of course, the area surrounding the volcanoes is sparsely populated,
and not a lot of money is at stake (well, I imagine the local farmers
think they're losing a lot of money, but it's probably not in the nine
digits). As soon as money contaminates the decision-making process, I
get scared. Our regulators miserably failed us--in Iceland and in the
United States--when our financial institutions got involved, and I fear
the same result if the airlines get too big a say in this matter.
The airlines have always known that an Icelandic volcanic eruption
would take place some day, and that volcanoes often emit vast quantities
of ash, yet they appear to have taken no precautions or made any
contingency plans to deal with such an eventuality. I expect to hear
them take up Alan Greenspan's chant of "no one could have known," but
they knew. They just had no incentive to act upon that knowledge. They
have always been focused only on next quarter's profits, and probably
expect the government to bail them out now.
We know the terrible risk posed by volcanic ash. A NATO F-16
suffered engine damage this weekend when it flew
through the plume. In
two instances in the 1980s, jets that encountered
volcanic ash lost all engines, but managed to restart them. The next one
may not be so fortunate.
Let the scientists--not the airlines--decide when it's safe.
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